Context
The ceremony half split from #14569 at PR review: the harness merged with the June gate PASSING and the May door LOCKED (runHoldout throws without {singleShot: true, operatorProvenance}; no May data ships in-repo). This ticket is the ceremony itself — deliberately human-involving, deliberately once.
The protocol (from the recorded five-step hindcast design)
- Assemble May-2026 history OUTSIDE the repo (the divergence month: narrative said shutdown; the repo built 664 non-chore commits — exactly where volume-blind attribution misreads with confidence).
- Labeled sample: operator + ≥2 agents independently label a sample of May items; disagreements adjudicated; the adjudication recorded.
- Single-shot run:
runHoldout({singleShot: true, operatorProvenance: <the adjudication record's pointer>, ...}) — once. The result stands regardless of outcome and is recorded verbatim.
- F2: compare attributed
v_D against the volume-blind baseline on the known outcomes — if attribution misreads May WORSE than the baseline, the attribute-then-aggregate fidelity claim fails and the composition question reopens (recorded, not hidden).
- The skill report artifact: per-horizon miss-rates from the June gate + the May shot — the render leaf's (#14570) input contract. No skill at a horizon = no render at that horizon, by design.
Acceptance Criteria
Related
#14569 (the merged harness — the door this ceremony unlocks once) · #14570 (consumes the skill report) · the June gate (already passed, in-repo) · the divergence-holdout design record.
Operator-involving by construction; agent legs claimable when the operator schedules it.
Origin Session ID: b9b95ac6-42f5-47a3-b58f-6071f79657e8
Retrieval Hint: "May holdout ceremony single shot labeled sample adjudication skill report F2 divergence"
Context
The ceremony half split from #14569 at PR review: the harness merged with the June gate PASSING and the May door LOCKED (
runHoldoutthrows without{singleShot: true, operatorProvenance}; no May data ships in-repo). This ticket is the ceremony itself — deliberately human-involving, deliberately once.The protocol (from the recorded five-step hindcast design)
runHoldout({singleShot: true, operatorProvenance: <the adjudication record's pointer>, ...})— once. The result stands regardless of outcome and is recorded verbatim.v_Dagainst the volume-blind baseline on the known outcomes — if attribution misreads May WORSE than the baseline, the attribute-then-aggregate fidelity claim fails and the composition question reopens (recorded, not hidden).Acceptance Criteria
runHoldoutexecution, provenance-pointed; result recorded verbatim whatever it says.Related
#14569 (the merged harness — the door this ceremony unlocks once) · #14570 (consumes the skill report) · the June gate (already passed, in-repo) · the divergence-holdout design record.
Operator-involving by construction; agent legs claimable when the operator schedules it.
Origin Session ID: b9b95ac6-42f5-47a3-b58f-6071f79657e8 Retrieval Hint: "May holdout ceremony single shot labeled sample adjudication skill report F2 divergence"