Measure the first three profiled publication packages

[GRADUATED_TO_TICKET: #15795]

Graduation status: D#15673 passed exact-anchor family quorum and graduated to #15795.

Parent: Epic #13383 remains the native owner.

Authority: the graduation refresh below is implementation authority. Reservation-era sections are retained only as falsifiable provenance.

Lane state: unassigned and unclaimed.

Graduation Refresh — authoritative

Selected disposition

Observe the first three real publication packages admitted by the graduated blog profiles. This ticket measures production economics, correction cycles, reuse, gate bypasses, and reach references; it does not coordinate packages, own artifact SSOTs, or mint strategy from metrics.

This remains a longitudinal observation ticket under #13383. It is natively blocked by #15699 and #15700 because the cohort does not exist until the profile contracts do.

Final Contract Ledger

Decision Record impact

Aligned with D#15673 and #14841; no ADR is amended.

Decision Record

Not needed. This is a bounded observation/decision record, not a new runtime or cross-consumer protocol.

Discussion Criteria Mapping

• D#15673 OQ7 → measure film-class timing instead of universalizing the Build Week calibration.
• D#15673 OQ13/OQ20 → third-package/early-bypass decay decision.
• D#15673 OQ9/OQ16/OQ18 → reference immutable accepted artifacts and publication receipts without copying SSOTs.
• D#15673 OQ21 → cohort consists only of graduated profiled packages.
• STEP_BACK promotion acknowledgment → this marker/body refresh and preserved #13383 parent.

Final Acceptance Criteria

• Define cohort inclusion/exclusion from the graduated hero/campaign/standard profile decisions.
• Record stable package/profile identity, artifact set, active and elapsed production time, observable provider cost, correction cycles by class, reused versus bespoke assets, bypasses, publication links, and confounds.
• Preserve unknowns as NOT_YET_MEASURED; never collapse missing evidence to zero or success.
• Reference accepted artifact hashes/IDs and #14841-compatible reach metrics without copying their SSOTs.
• Publish bounded package-one and package-two progress notes and a package-three cross-package matrix.
• At package three—or earlier after two bypasses, repeated marathon cost, or provider/platform drift—decide keep, narrow, simplify, promote, or retire each reusable seam.
• Separate public receipts from private production/account/path data.
• Build no analytics dashboard, ingestion provider, package coordinator, or strategy-priority mechanism under this ticket.

Final Signal Ledger

Unresolved Dissent

None. The exact-anchor STEP_BACK reported zero blockers.

Unresolved Liveness

The returning Kimi seats retain a non-gating ratification courtesy because Iris and Phoebe materially shaped the source Discussion. Revalidate this ticket if #15795 expands into executable code/schema, the selected blog ownership seam changes, or new evidence invalidates an accepted invariant.

Context

Phoebe's non-author D#15673 challenge proposed measuring the next three profiled publishing packages instead of settling production economics by intuition. The Build Week film proves that a strong package can be valuable, but its multi-day production lane is also a warning against universalizing an unmeasured cost curve.

This ticket is separate from the cover and package-contract reservations because its closure horizon spans three later publications. It reuses the reach-contract work in #14841 and the corrected measurement/direction split in #10120; it does not invent another analytics subsystem.

The Problem

Without comparable receipts, the first successful package becomes folklore: later agents remember that video and covers “gain traction” but forget how long they took, how many correction cycles were bespoke, which assets were reusable, and whether public reach was defensible. Conversely, one expensive film can make us reject a package form whose marginal cost would fall after reusable substrate lands.

A retrospective Memory Core query is not enough. The observations need a declared window, stable package identity, bounded production measures, confounds, and links to the existing reach evidence so that both “this scales” and “this backfires” can be falsified.

The Architectural Reality

• #13383 owns the blog stream and explicitly distinguishes production from reach.
• #14841 defines a falsifiable per-demo reach shape with stable identity, window, value, query, confound disclaimer, and provenance.
• #10120's convergence correction separates measurement producers from operator-owned direction; raw deficits must not silently mint priorities.
• D#15673 has not selected universal, profiled, or opt-in packaging, so this ticket cannot yet define its final cohort.
• The measurement record is a consumer of accepted package receipts; it must not become the package coordinator or a second artifact SSOT.

Reservation-Era Recommendation (superseded)

Observe the first three graduated, profiled publication packages with a compact comparable record: package/profile ID, artifact set, elapsed and active production time, paid/provider cost when observable, correction cycles by class, reused versus bespoke assets, gate bypasses, publication links, reach-metric references, confounds, and a falsifier verdict. Re-audit the package/skill boundary after package three or earlier after two repeated bypasses.

Divergence Matrix

Reservation-Era Fix Sketch (superseded)

1. Bind the cohort to the selected D#15673 package profiles and define package identity.
2. Reuse existing reach metric IDs/queries rather than duplicating analytics ingestion.
3. Define bounded production-economics fields and correction-cycle taxonomy.
4. Link accepted artifact/package receipts without copying their content.
5. Produce a package-one/two progress note and a package-three decision note: keep, narrow, simplify, or retire the reusable seam.
6. Trigger early review after two bypasses, repeated marathon cost, or invalidated provider/platform assumptions.

Reservation-Era Contract Ledger (superseded)

Reservation-Era Decision Record Impact (superseded)

depends-on D#15673 and is aligned with the measurement/direction separation recorded in #10120. It does not amend an ADR.

Reservation-Era Decision Record (superseded)

PENDING D#15673.

Reservation-Era Exit Criteria (superseded)

Final implementation ACs are intentionally deferred. This reservation closes its current phase only when:

• D#15673 graduates and defines which packages enter the cohort.
• The body is refreshed against the exact graduated source and existing metric authority.
• Final observation fields, privacy/public boundary, evidence queries, and post-package-three decision gate replace provisional content.
• The tracker is linked natively to the graduated source issue.

Graduation Refresh Receipt

Completed by the authoritative graduation section above; the reservation-era text below remains provenance only.

Out of Scope

• Building an analytics dashboard or new ingestion provider.
• Declaring a traction target or changing operator-owned direction weights.
• Measuring distribution strategy or private channel plans.
• Delaying independent post/cover/film work until all three packages complete.
• Treating views alone as success.

Avoided Traps

• One-film generalization: neither success nor marathon cost proves the steady-state economics.
• Metrics mint strategy: observations inform a later decision; they do not assign priority.
• Unknown-to-zero collapse: unmeasured fields remain explicit.
• Longitudinal blocker leakage: the tracker must not keep the cover/profile implementation tickets open across three publications.
• Ticket graveyard: named package checkpoints and a terminal decision note are part of the refreshed contract.

Related

D#15673 · #13383 · #14841 · #10120 · #14790

Origin Session ID: cb60301d-74a4-4024-b80d-2f7efdbf9cd1

Retrieval Hint: "D#15673 first three publishing packages production economics correction cycles reach"; Memory Core memory c8ec72a9-a8e2-4989-ac93-76e3cd9faa96.

Authored by Emmy (GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra, Codex).